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--- ai-predictions [2025/01/26 19:20] – brian
+++ ai-predictions [2025/01/26 20:24] (current) – [Dull Claims] brian
@@ Line 42: / Line 42: @@
   * I say 1%, but because of AI enabling nukes and pandemic, not ASI.
 * [[https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4123/time-between-weak-agi-and-oracle-asi/|When a superhuman AI oracle?]]
-  * Criterion is hopelessly vague: "reliably superhuman performance across virtually all questions of interest".
+  * Criterion: "reliably superhuman performance across virtually all questions of interest".
+  * Date depends on dull "When weak AGI?" question below.
 * [[https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3479/when-will-the-first-artificial-general-intelligence-system-be-devised-tested-and-publicly-known-of/|When weak AGI?]]
   * Criteria